The Frontier Post, Updated on 3/9/2002 10:33:47 AM
The post September 11 Indian designs -- I
Asad Omar Cheema
The events of September 11, 2001, are etched in the whole worlds mind and every understanding human would have a vivid picture in his mind, thanks to the media, of the horrific and horrendous loss of live and property perpetuated by the hijacked aircraft slamming into the world Trade Centre buildings and the Pentagon.
The fallout of the devastation has literally dumped billions down the drain.
The loss of thousands of priceless lives can never be gauged or explained away by anyone.
The economic loss, the fall in stock markets, the loss to the airline industry, the increase in the recession and the loss of thousands of jobs would have far reaching effects, more than what most are evaluating or professing now.
The geo-political situation in the unipolar world has started shifting and I estimate that in a years time from now, we would see a new world order, which very few can foresee now and others have not been able to look beyond the immediate future.
Pakistan, due to its geo-strategic location and geo-political situation has suddenly became an essential requirement of the in its war against terror.
This situation, almost God sent, has put Pakistan back in the headlines and a key player in the whole game.
Thanks to the pragmatic and courageous decision by President Musharraf, Pakistan has been accepted by the whole world as a moderate, tolerant and progressive Islamic country.
The extremists or fanatics have sidelined and the whole population stands firmly behind the president sans a very minor or negligible group of ignorant religious zealots, who have been gaining both monetarily and politically for throwing in their lot with the Taliban and have lost their self esteem.
This American war on terror is far from over, however, the base camp of Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda has been uprooted from Afghanistan and most of these Taliban have melted away in the local populace, from where they could re-emerge.
The headlines of the major media channels have gradually started covering other stories in the world also.
This approaching end of the war in Afghanistan had been very heavy on the Indian mind since the middle of October.
Before I go further, let me explain the Indian mindset and what has been going on in there since September 11.
The Indians had been investing heavily, both in monetary terms and politically, in its design to undermine Pakistan in almost every field since the last decade or so.
Their strategy was to sideline Pakistan in as many aspects as possible to project it as a failed state.
Economically, they were trying their best to wrest all the markets from us in the world, where they could compete with our exports.
The Indian government gave incentives to their exporters to undercut Pakistani products everywhere in the world and promised up to 25% subsidy to all exporters to sell at a lesser price than the cost price and be compensated by the Indian government.
Politically, they had been trying hard to get Pakistan declared a terrorist state and get the condemnation of the world.
They were gloating at Pakistan being strangled by the IMF and getting crushed under its insurmountable debt.
They were talking of further sanctions against Pakistan for having gone nuclear, being a non-democratic country and one, which abetted terrorism military.
Since the unpleasant shock of being caught off guard in Kargil, they had gone to improve their arsenals of all three services to have a clout, which it found itself seriously lacking then.
Externally, since the demise of the erstwhile Soviet Union - its trusted ally and benefactor, India had been almost shamefacedly harping the tunes that the USA preferred to hear and been trying very hard to get as close to America as possible, primarily to be accepted as a regional power and also to edge out Pakistan of any favour worth the name it had with the USA since the imposed sanctions and to literally get it cornered as a failed state in all international world forums.
They even managed to oust Pakistan from the Commonwealth for having a military government led by their nemesis of the Kargil days.
They were succeeding quite well in their grand strategic plans and were quite happy with the progress they were making for having carved out a very special relationship with the USA in the days of President Clinton.
Then came September 11 and suddenly they were having a nightmare, which was worse in reality.
The Americans needed Pakistan to assist them in their war against terror.
We were suddenly a frontline state and the closest partner with the USA in the coalition of the whole world against terrorism.
The almost failed state, which was about to default on its loan repayment schedule and was at the mercy of all the financial institutions of the world, was being given a chance to recover itself with rescheduling and write-offs worth millions of dollars.
This cozying up of relations of Pakistan must have sent shivers down the Indian government spine.
The Indians were very fast in realising that Pakistan would gain from this new situation and were quick to offer everything they could to the USA so that the war against terror was fought from their soil and they hoped that the border would be their western border instead of the Durand Line in Americas war against terror.
Suddenly, a nation which used to have so must of chauvinism that they would not even allow a foreign multi-nation commercial company to have independent stakes or base in India, were offering their ports, airfields and what ever else was required to the Americans.
But they were really disheartened when their offers were not accepted by the USA and they found the new relationship forming between the USA and Pakistan as very distasteful.
The Indian crooked psyche started working overtime from then onwards.
They put their best minds together and came up with a policy to kill two birds with one stone.
That was to sour the relationship between Pakistan and the USA with anything which would go against the American mindset, which at the moment is fight against terrorism and religious extremists like Osama and his Al Qaeda network.
They worked out a plan similar to one they had hatched immediately after the Kargil episode, which was, to blame the Pakistan government for abetting terrorists and that the Kashmiri freedom fight was an act of terrorism by the mujahideen.
They had some loose ends left unattended since December 1999 due to their own faux pas or shoddy planning and they had watered down the whole affair then to avoid further embarrassment which they are now trying to tie together.
The Frontier Post, Updated on 3/10/2002 10:43:59 AM
The post September 11 Indian designs -- II
Asad Omar Cheema
The Indians had staged and managed a drama of hijacking one of their own airline IC-814 from Katmandu.
This aircraft had gone to Amritsar, Lahore, Dubai and finally to Kandhar, where the hijacking was resolved.
They had then released two Indian occupied Kashmiri natives and a jailed Pakistani, who had been under detention for almost two years without being charged of any offence.
Maulana Azhar, whom they now say as being a terrorist, was lying in their jail for having entered India with no papers.
At that time, he was a religious leader who was inciting the Kashmiris to stand for their right of self-determination.
The masked hijackers, who were paid Indian intelligence operative, after enacting the whole drama, returned the next day in an Indian aircraft sent to collect the crew and passengers of the hijacked aircraft.
The Indians are now recapping about this maulana as being behind the Indian parliament attack of 13 December.
Now after two years since that hijacking, the Indians new plan to implicate Pakistan is becoming clear.
One thing that has always been very clear is that Indians are masters of deceit and Machiavellian schemes.
They had been enacting all kind of dramas at the opportune times when they could derive political mileage out of such incidents, where even killing its own citizens has never mattered to them, as long as they can convey or bring home a point to their advantage; they even staged and massacred almost three dozen Sikhs, just before President Clintons visit to Agra, but luckily the would be perpetuators were caught by the locals and identified as members of the Indian Border Security Force.
Such dastardly acts can be expected from the Indians anytime they need an excuse to get one up.
The Indians have been losing a lot of sleep since the September 11 incident on how to implicate Pakistan into anything that would distant us from our new found friendship with the USA.
The in word is terrorism and that is what the Indians are trying to do since then.They want the freedom struggle in Kashmir to be put under the heading of terrorism and the best way is to blame Pakistan for assisting terrorist, thereby proving to the USA and the world that we are sending terrorist to Kashmir, therefore, we should be equated with countries which harbour them.
To paint the freedom struggle in Kashmir as terrorism, the Indians first engineered the attack on the Kashmir Assembly building in Srinagar itself, and conveniently made sure that no one was left alive to tell the true tale of who was behind it.
All Kashmiri freedom fighters denied any hand in such cowardly acts.
The Indians were shamefully rejected by the world.
Then, they tried the melodrama of an aircraft hijacking, and started blaming Pakistan about being the mastermind behind it, before the aircraft had even landed at Lucknow.
Now the Indians are trying to go further with their deceitful attempts by painting the 13 December attack on their parliament as an act of terrorism abetted by Pakistan.
The Indian media had started harping on this whole incident as being the handicraft of ISI and jaish-e-Muhammadi even before the shooting had stopped in the parliament.
This was a similar pattern as they had done during the IC-814 hijacking, when the Indian media had started showing the demands of the hijackers almost twelve hours before they had talked to any one at all about their demands, and surprisingly, the media had read their mind, before they had opened their mouths.
As the handouts had already been passed to the media by the agencies which had masterminded the whole episode, similarly, this time also.
Jaish-e-Muhammadi and Lashkar-e-Taiba were already on the mat, while the so allied terrorist were still alive and kicking around the parliament building.
The freedom fighters have always restricted themselves inside or outside Kashmir.
The unsuccessful attempts by the Indians to taint them terrorist have always boomeranged.
This war mongering is basically to put pressure on Pakistan to desist from even providing diplomatic, political and moral support to the Kashmiri freedom fighters.
So where are we going from here.
Let us look at what is the Indian strategy now after seeing the failure of their earlier attempts at wooing the world to see Kashmiri freedom fight as terrorism.
They have embarked on a highly irresponsible and costly gamble of threatening us with war and other dire consequences for not toeing their line.
All the rhetoric by the Indians and putting all the troops and other war machinery into action to threaten us would actually backfire for them soon.
Their war mongering and trying to browbeat Pakistan into submission has failed.
They are na´ve enough to think that Pakistan would give up its principled stand of favouring the Kashmir struggle for freedom because of fear or awe of the Americans.
The Indian strategy is to put so much pressure of going to war so that we would buckle in and accede to all their demands.
The fact is that they are having too myopic a view because of their own short sightedness President Musharraf has taken the challenge very bravely and while vying for peace through dialogue has mobilised our own armed forces to be ready for any eventuality, including war.
So will we have a war soon? Let us see the perspectives of the Americans, Indians and Pakistan about the whole affair and the success expected militarily or otherwise to each.
The Americans obviously do not want a war because it presently needs Pakistan for its war in Afghanistan and does not want India to sabotage its own plans in the region.
Secondly, it does not want any cracks in the coalition as both India and Pakistan are on the same side of the fence.
Thirdly, they know that the present government of President Musharraf has managed to draw a line and differentiate between the extremist and religious zealots who are in very less numbers and the general public, the majority of which favours his policy.
If a war breaks out, the dividing line would vanish and the whole nation would unite in its fight against India, thereby leaving the Afghan war in the lurch and having a jihadi population of almost 140 million people to deal with especially when these would have fairly potent conventional and nuclear arsenals.
Lastly, if the present showdown leads to a war, the American operations and their people in Pakistan, including over 1000 personnel in Jacobabad and other associated places would be in danger to getting caught in the crossfire, which is the last thing the Americans would want.
What does India gain or lose in this confrontation.
The only thing that they think they would gain is that they will manage to break our will and see us backing off.
Here they are sadly mistaken.
The other extreme is their present mindset that they can win a war with Pakistan.
What would be the political objective of such a war? To take some part of Pakistans territory and then to negotiate a deal in their favour? They are sadly mistaken in this premise.
And if they have a military objective, their planners are grossly overestimating themselves.
The reason being that while they think that can use their armour to wrest any chunk of land in area known as south of Sutlej, they do not realise that they would also have to forsake some of very vital territory somewhere else, which would be of more value to them when in our hands.
If they believe that they can mount a 1.3 ratio in their favour for an offensive to succeed, they would have to de-induct troops from Kashmir, which is highly unlikely.
If they believe that they can succeed in Kashmir, they know how difficult it is to fight in snow covered terrain and that too when the local population is hostile to the troops there.
What advantage they had in East Pakistan in 1971 about the local population and immediate access will not be available to them this time.