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OnlineVolunteers.org, Web posted on
September 21, 2002 (*)
Demographic Lies and Demonisation
By Ram Puniyani
One of the major factors in perpetuation of
communal violence is the doctoring of the mass consciousness. The
social common sense is manufactured in such a way that the
targeted community is made to appear as the culprit. The classic
case of 'Victim as Culprit'. And that's how so many myths
percolate about the minorities. Apart from the Historical myths
the one's related to demographics are playing a serious role in
the demonisation of Muslims in particular. In a way what Mr. Modi
said is nothing new as far as social common sense is concerned.
Modi's statement during his Gaurav Yatra about Muslims, "We
are five and we will have 25 offspring's.... For this, we have to
teach a lesson to those who are increasing the population at an
alarming rate.", has been resented even by the BJP top brass
who at deeper level believe that what Mr. Modi said is true, it
is this propagation, which has been done by communal outfits
actively most of the time. And also these are the types of
propagations, which are actively spread by the members of the
progeny of RSS, the Sangh Parivar. So why this resentment against
Mr. Modi by many a leaders of Sangh Parivar like Vajpayee and
Vaikayya Naidu etc?
Sangh Parivar though deeply believes in this and propagates it,
it is done in a way whereby the electoral wing does not have to
resort to this propaganda making as the RSS, VHP, Bajarang Dal
etc.are there to do this job, to prepare the fertile ground for
electoral benefits for the Hindutva politics. The electoral wing,
BJP, has to ensure that it keeps a neutral face to win over even
the 'enemies' (Muslims, Christains and Communists) of Hindu
nation, as defined by M.S. Golwalkar, the major ideologue of
Sangh Parivar. While Mr. Modi out of desperation wants to ensure
the post violence consolidation of Hindu votes, it may have
adverse repercussions on the overall strategy of BJP, so this
reprimand to the emerging Hero of Hindutva politics, Narendra
Modi. As such what are the facts behind the Ham Panch Hamare
Pachis, (A derogarory reference to Muslims' attitude towards
family planning etc.-We are five, one husband-four wives, twenty
Children) Does demographic data support this construct, which
comes in handy especially before the riots to build up the
atmosphere. The census surveys by religion totally negate this
firmly held popular belief. Religion is one of the markers used
in these surveys. As per 1971 survey Hindus constituted 82.7% and
Muslims 11.2% of the population. The corresponding figures for
1991 census are Hindus 82.6% and Muslims 11.4%. (Malayalam
Manorama, 1992). The marginal difference in the growth pattern as
we will see a bit later has more to do with socio-economic
factors rather than the religious ones. Over all, this statistics
shows a reasonably 'stable' (religion wise) population. That
apart, even if the current differentials persist, it is not only
unlikely, but also impossible for Muslim population to overtake
the Hindu population for the next century or so. On the contrary
if the prevailing growth rates are analysed, it will be clear
that between 61-71 and 71-81,Hindu population increase went up
from 23.71 to 24.42, while between the same periods Muslim
population increase went down from 30.85 to 30.20. If these rate
of growths are frozen at same level hundred years from
1981,Hindus and Muslims will record a decadal growth rate of
30.71 and 30.55 respectively i.e. growth rates of Hindus will be
higher.
Similarly what about four wives to the Muslim male. Is it
possible at all? On first count it is immaterial whether a man is
having one or more wives as the total number of children depends
on the number of women, which does not get influenced by
polygamy. If at all, this number of women has more to do with the
prevalence of social practice of female infanticide and 'bride
burnings' in the areas where the practice of extortion by parents
of 'grooms' called dowry is prevalent. Secondly, the male/female
ratio cannot permit the 'luxury' of four wives to the Muslim
males unless three-fourths (75%) of them go without marriage. As
per 1981 census the male/female ratio for Muslims was 1.068 and
for Hindus 1.072 i.e. for every 1000 Muslim females there are
1068 Muslim males. One has to conceive of gigantic mental
acrobatics, in the light of these statistics, to believe that all
Muslim males can have four wives. As such a slightly earlier but
relevant statistics of polygamy (1961 census report) totally
smashes the myth of Muslim polygamy, unless the social trends
have worsened drastically, which obviously have not. As per this
the incidence of polygamy is highest among the Adivasis (15.25)
followed by Buddhists (7.9), Jains (6.72) Hindus (5.80) and lo
behold, followed by Muslims (5.70). Research carried out by
Mallika B.Mistry of Gokhle institute of Pune, concludes
"there is no evidence that the percentage of polygamous
marriage (among Muslims) is larger than for Hindus". A
comparison of nuptiality patterns for Hindus and Muslims shows
great similarity, the incidence of polygamy has been declining
among both Hindus and Muslims.
From the above it will be interesting to draw the religion based
fertility patterns. These patterns differ within Muslim community
itself, they vary from region to region as per the socio-economic
and educational levels of the community concerned. Those in the
better socio-economic and educational ladder have lesser
population increase, while those on the lower rungs of
socio-economic educational ladder have higher rate of population
growth. This conforms to regional, urban and rural distribution
as well. Birth rates in Malabar region of Kerala, whose Muslim
population is 40%, is significantly lower than those in Uttar
Pradesh with a Muslim population of 15%. The contrasting case is
that of Kashmir, a Muslim majority state. Here the Fertility rate
of Hindus is almost twice that of Muslims. Here again the birth
rate was lower 31.4(per thousand) than in U.P (36.5), MP 36.4,
Bihar 34.8 and Rajasthan 33.4.
We have to realise that the overall rate of population increase
in educationally and socially advanced states like Kerala,
Tamilnadu and Karnataka, is overall lower, both for Muslims and
Hindus, compared to the rest of the country. Also let us have a
look at Urban rural divide. More than on third of the Muslim
community is concentrated in the peripheral and decaying areas of
urban economic life. Incidence of urban poverty is higher among
them by 17%(vis--vis Hindus). The number of Muslims living below
poverty line is close to 65%. They are generally living in older
areas of modern cities, which are well known for poor sanitation,
lack of health facilities and basic amenities. On the top of this
the repeated outburst of communal violence against them is
'ghettoising' them with the result that improvement in their lot
is becoming more and more difficult.
Overall one observes that there are multiple factors determining
the rate of population growth, religion being very low on
weightage scale, if at all it counts at all. Socio-economic
betterment and education are the foremost factors helping in the
control of population growth. Feeling of insecurity and poor
socio-economic status counter the efforts to promote family
planning, (nee, welfare, which is the term conveying the goals of
this exercise more precisely), and these two factors transcend
the religious factor by number of times. One has to 'complement'
the Gobbelsian methods of Hindu right, which have concocted this
offensive slogan, which is far removed from the truth.
And lastly what about the Muslims not taking to family planning?
In Islamic countries like Turkey and Indonesia family planning
methods are quite popular. In Turkey for example 63% of the
population in the reproductive age group uses contraception and
in Indonesia the figure is 48%. In India the number of Muslim
couples in the child bearing age practising family planning in
1970 was 9%(Hindus 14%) and in 1980, 22.5%(Hindus 36.1%)
(Operation Research Group, Baroda 1981). Thus the number of
additional Muslims taking to family planning is keeping pace with
the number of Hindus doing the same. Like all other social
programmes family planning is also linked with socio-economic
status, level of general social awareness etc. We will be
repeatedly encountering this fact that a large number of Muslims
being in the low socio economic strata share these statistics
more with other socially disadvantaged sections of society.
Narendra Modi's use of abusive and abrasive language to distort
the Demographic facts in a way does not come as a surprise as it
has been the major fodder on whch the communalism has been
feeding itself. Whatever be the far reaching implications of such
statements, it is sure the communal politics will keep resorting
to such myths to strengthen itself.
(*)(The writer works for EKTA, Committee for Communal Amity,
Mumbai)